On November 3, the chief statistician of the WTO, Hubert Escaith, pointed out that the trade cooperation in the post-financial crisis pointed out that various South-South regional cooperation will arise. This is a kind of trade creation. If China replaces Germany in 2009, it will become the world's larger. Exporting countries are good things.
Hubert Escaith said that in the past 20 years, multinational companies have succeeded in finding labor in the world and producing low-cost resources for production is the main driving force for global economic development. But this process, the global supply chain, was hit hard by the global financial crisis that erupted in September 2007.
He pointed out that since the crisis, the decline in world trade volume was partly due to the supply chain caused by the financial crisis, but in principle, it is the effect of inventory. The “inventory effect†means that when terminal consumption declines, each part of the supply chain is no longer in Stock due to uncertainty about the economic outlook until it has run out of its inventory. So the end of the supply chain will face a sudden stagnation. But when consumption returns to normal, the global supply chain can return to its former state.
Hubert Escaith said that because of the inventory effect, global trade that is entering the early stage of economic recovery will have a strong rebound (because everyone's inventory has been exhausted), especially around Christmas 2009. But by 2010, everything depends on consumer demand and corporate investment.
Hubert Escaith pointed out that the WTO has repeatedly criticized protectionism since 2008, because it will intensify the financial crisis. The WTO welcomes China and Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, and South Africa to reduce their trade protection. This reduction in trade barriers has also directly stimulated the faster growth of these countries' exports than Western developed countries.
At the same time, unlike the US-speaking West, which slams China's surplus, Hubert Escaith believes that any form of export is welcome.
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