Affected by the situation on the peninsula, the US dollar index once fell below the 93 mark on Monday, refreshing the new low on August 12. The euro yen once fell below the 109 mark. On Tuesday in the Asian market, the US dollar index rose slightly after the high level, and the US dollar was at 93.300.
Reuters analysis said that the US dollar continued to be under pressure on Monday, and the recent geopolitical situation was tense. The US and South Korean troops began a computer simulation of military exercises on North Korea’s weapons program on Monday. This move angered North Korea, and North Korea condemned the military exercise as preparing for nuclear war. . The Jackson Hole Conference will be ushered in on Thursday, and the bets on the Fed's policy adjustments have decreased in recent days, but if Yellen emphasizes the need to pay close attention to inflation target risks and financial stability, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations may heat up.
Westpac said that there are two major factors affecting the dollar in the near future. First, the debt ceiling will cause the government to stop the risk will rise sharply in September and October. The general view is that there is bound to be a deadlock between the two parties. Second, the euro is unlikely to fall sharply before the ECB’s plan to exit the easing policy. We can be inspired by the withdrawal of the US dollar in the 2013 quantitative easing panic: from the Fed mentioned that it may withdraw from QE until December 2013, the dollar was well supported during this period. It is expected that the euro may have a similar situation, so it is expected to be more favorable to the US dollar in the latter part of the fourth quarter. At that time, the risk event will be resolved, and the US domestic center of gravity will also shift to the tax reform.
HSBC said that the Fed will decide whether to raise interest rates until December, and there is no new catalyst in the financial sector. The US budget and debt ceiling have not yet affected the US dollar, so the US dollar is expected in the next few weeks. Or it will grow moderately, which is also consistent with the Bank's recent bearish euro and pound sterling. In addition, it has recently been short-selling the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. The US dollar suspended its depreciation trend in August, indicating a decrease in short positions; the US dollar index DXY is expected to rise above 95.25 of the 50-day moving average.
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