Zhang Handong: *** Another 3% Appreciation

Lang Xianping once said that if the exchange rate of the *** against the U.S. dollar fell below 6.5, half of China’s traditional manufacturing foreign trade companies would face fatal choices. His judgment is that China's textile industry, the general product of the current product profit is also about 5%, some profit only two or three points. If *** appreciates again by 3%, nearly half of the companies will close down.

"This statement is too alarmist," said Zhang Handong, director of Zhejiang International Trade Research Center.

Zhang Handong stated that since the exchange rate reform on July 20, 2005, the total value of *** has risen by more than 20%, but in addition to 2009, China’s foreign trade has basically grown at a double-digit rate, and companies have also developed, and there are not many The business fell. "This is actually the process of running and playing."

In addition, it should be noted that the *** has appreciated against the US dollar, but it has not appreciated significantly in other currencies. Before the exchange reform on July 20, 2005, at that time, one euro was convertible for 9.99***, but so far, one euro can already be exchanged for 10.9***. This means that the euro is in a rising trend. The appreciation of the *** is inaccurate. It only increases against the US dollar and depreciates against other currencies such as the British pound and the Australian dollar.

At the same time, other issues faced by foreign trade companies are even more severe than the exchange rate of 6.5. According to a survey conducted by the Provincial Department of Commerce, since the second half of last year, the prices of raw materials have risen sharply. Prices for cotton yarn, for example, have risen by more than 100%. The prices of exported goods have not kept pace with the rise in raw materials, which has squeezed the profits of foreign trade companies. . Difficulty in recruiting labor and artificially rising costs are the problems faced by most foreign trade production companies. According to reports from enterprises, labor costs have increased by about 20% compared with the same period of last year. At present, the work rate of workers in foreign trade production enterprises is generally less than 80%.

“Currently, the appreciation pressure is still there and the appreciation is the trend of the times.” Zhang Handong analyzed that the prosperity of a country is often accompanied by the appreciation of the local currency. Looking at the current situation at home and abroad and the recent trend, in 2011, the situation is facing. The pressure for appreciation will not be less than last year, and it is expected that the full-year appreciation of *** against the US dollar should be above 3%.

"In the short term, the appreciation of the renminbi will directly lead to the weakening of the advantages in export commodity prices. This is the short-term pain. Some enterprises are unavoidably failing. But in the long run, this is an opportunity for self-adjustment. The right to speak determines the right to life. This is a short board for many small and medium-sized foreign trade companies," said Zhang Handong.