Securities Times Network () October 25th
Securities Times reporter Zhang Guofeng
On October 25, SDIC Morgan (Hong Kong) released its domestic market investment strategy report for the fourth quarter of 2017. The report pointed out that due to the impact of the inventory cycle, the 17-year GDP growth rate is expected to be high and low, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.8%. As the economic growth rate is significantly higher than 6.5%, the central bank has a greater chance to maintain a stable and neutral policy tone. It is expected that the overall liquidity environment will be tight in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, financial regulation and de-leverage will continue to advance, and interest rates may fluctuate. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of infrastructure was low, and there was room for fiscal growth in the fourth quarter. At present, the scale of interbank deposit certificates has reached a new high, and will face tightening pressure in the future.
The report also pointed out that the demand for the real economy exceeded expectations in the first half of the year. After entering the third quarter, the growth rate will slow down. It is expected that demand will decline slowly in the fourth quarter. Demand in the third quarter was stable, and short-term supply-side reforms were exerted. The fabrics in short supply will continue. With the fall in real estate and manufacturing investment, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down. However, the opportunities for real estate and manufacturing investment growth will slow down in the future, and the annual growth rate may be lower than current expectations.
Zhang Shuzhen, investment director of Morgan Stanley (Hong Kong), said: "Since the economic growth rate is stable, significantly higher than the 6.5% bottom line, monetary policy is difficult to turn loose. The current off-balance sheet leverage is still high, deepening financial supervision and financial de-leverage. Under the circumstances, it is expected that the liquidity environment will be slightly tighter in the fourth quarter. The growth rate of infrastructure in the first three quarters is low, and there is room for fiscal growth in the fourth quarter."
Views on overseas markets, Zhang Shuzhen said that the US economic growth has been repeated, Trump's new policy has been questioned, and there has been a big disagreement over the Fed's rate hike market. However, from the historical experience, when the natural disasters such as hurricanes appeared, the US economy experienced a decline in the quarter, and there will be a significant rebound in the next quarter. The probability of a rate hike in December has risen from 26% at the beginning of September to around 70%.
In the domestic bond market, Liang Zhongping, the investment manager of Morgan Stanley (Hong Kong), pointed out that due to the macroeconomic downturn in the fourth quarter, the overall inflation level should be stable and the interest rate debt should not be too pessimistic. However, as the overall funding level remains tight and stable, it is difficult to have a trend, and we can focus on the opportunities of “fast forward and fast out†trading. In terms of industrial bonds, it is recommended to allocate high-grade credit bonds, avoid low-grade varieties, and pay attention to the hidden credit risks of private enterprises. In terms of urban investment bonds, as the Ministry of Finance frequently emphasizes the boundaries of government debt, the cost-effectiveness of urban investment bonds is gradually weakened, and it is necessary to strictly select subjects with strong financial strength and high administrative level.
As for the A-share market, SDIC Morgan (Hong Kong) believes that the market volatility may increase in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the liquidity environment will be tightened compared with the third quarter, and the economic growth rate will have a slowdown. In October, the market environment was warmer, and the low valuation industry had room for growth. After that, the atmosphere will be relatively cautious. Situ Fanghua, senior fund manager of Morgan Stanley (Hong Kong), said that from the past experience, the situation of style conversion in the fourth quarter of this year is relatively low, and large value stocks have a chance to continue to outperform. In this market environment, industries with a boom in the economy and stable performance and low valuations will be more likely to achieve excess returns.
In addition, Situ Fanghua said that the relative valuation of the sector has not changed significantly. At present, the valuation of the main board has further increased to 17 times. The valuation of the small and medium-sized GEM relative to the main board has remained at the level of the beginning of 2012. The absolute valuation of the leading companies is basically reasonable. Industries with high prosperity, including electronics and new energy vehicles, still have room for improvement. The industries with stable performance but low valuations include banks, real estate, construction, building materials, home appliances, medicines and food and beverages, which may be in the turbulent city. Some performance.
Tips: All information content of Securities Times Network is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.
(Securities Times News Center)
Custom metal tag can be customized according to your requestments.Any logo design can be personalized,such as logo shape,surface treatment,back accessory,color and so on.
Metal Logo Tag,Metal Tag,Custom Metal Logo Tags
Shenzhen MingFengXing Art & Craft Products CO., LTD. , https://www.goodkeyring.com