International cotton market: India's cotton is difficult to sell

It is understood that the sales of port bonded cotton were gradually deserted on October 25 and 26, except for some 2010/11 high-grade US cotton and 2011 annual Australian cotton which have inquiry and goods to see, 2010/11 Indian cotton, West Africa cotton ( The places of origin are mainly Burkina Faso, Mali, and Benin. They are almost never sold and there are very few customers for inquiry. An import and export company in Zhangjiagang stated that from the beginning of October to the end of October, an average of 8 to 10 containers of bonded cotton can be walked, but since October 22, sales of bonded cotton have rapidly declined to 2-3 containers per day. There were almost no orders on the 26th.

It is reported that an international cotton trader has arrived in Hong Kong for cotton in 2010/11 in October, although the offer price is about 10 cents lower than India's cotton S-6 and India's RG, and there is also a difference of 4% from 2010/11 US cotton EMOTM grade cotton. -5 cents per pound, but most domestic traders and cotton companies have little interest in Pakistani cotton. In October, sales were less than 500 tons. Since Australian cotton is a loss-making sales in 2011, and domestic companies are keeping prices down, in order to reduce losses, some foreign investors will not be willing to sell high-grade Australian cotton in the port bonded area in the short term. Some offer not, while others offer significantly higher prices. Quotes from domestic traders and other cotton traders.

On the 26th, the spot price of a large-scale international cotton merchant bonded cotton is as follows (Qingdao Port): Australia's SM1-1/8′′3.5-4.9NCL29GPT offers 124.60 cents/lb, and SM1-5/32′′ 3.5-4.5NCL30GPT offers 125.85 cents. / pound; EMOTSM—11/8′′ offers 119.35 cents/lb; India S-6Sekul/21–1/8′′ offers 112.60 cents/lb; Pakistan Stamp/11−3/32′′ quotes 105.60 cents/lb; The 2011/12 Zimbabwe RGZAMBA/11–1/8′′ quoted at 115.60 cents/lb.

From the point of view of the quotation, some domestic traders offer 1-2 cents/pound lower than the spot price, but according to the analysis of two Singaporean cotton traders, the actual transaction price of this quotation must be adjusted at least 2 cents on the basis of the quotation. Above, the price of the Indian S-6 has fallen below 110 cents/lb. Due to the fact that domestic traders' cotton has been duplicating and mixed batches are relatively heavy, there is little room for the selection of bonded cotton, and some traders are contract cotton delivered by foreign companies, which has little room for price increase, and non-state cotton domestic traders for 2011/12. There are few operations, so cotton companies prefer to take cash from large foreign companies.

According to investigations by some agencies and foreign companies, as of October 20, the number of bonded cotton in China's main ports is about 10-12 million tons, including about 40-50 thousand tons in Qingdao, but due to the arrival of 2011/12 in early November The arrival of US cotton in the US and the arrival of US cotton in Hong Kong in the end of the year have increased significantly. In addition, cotton in West Africa (mainly Zimbabwe, RG and Zambia) has gradually arrived in Hong Kong in 2011/12, and Central Asian cotton also has a chance to be transported. Therefore, at the end of November, By the beginning of December, the number of bonded cotton in China's main ports will increase significantly and it is expected to reach 15-18 million tons.

Recently, the temporary relief of the European sovereign debt crisis, the preference of US economic data, and the steady growth of US GDP in the third quarter have caused the market to speculate on the continued low rebound of ICE**, but the pressure on cotton fundamentals has not eased, and the global economy can be slow. Recovery is still very variable, so some foreign investors believe that ICE cotton ** will continue to dominate the short-term, May 2012 contract still has the opportunity to test 90 cents. In the long run, with the gradual expansion of China's lint collection and storage, the market for cotton in the second half of 2011/12 is expected to fluctuate in the combined effect of drastic decline in social circulation resources, severe shrinkage of planted area, and a bottoming-out rebound in the global cotton consumer market. Suddenly started later. The short-term purchase and storage prices of 19800 yuan/ton standard cotton by the Chinese government in the short term have formed strong support both at home and abroad.

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