Macro data good cotton enterprises gradually open scales

The US plate oscillated and closed at the Cross Yang line. The US cotton surged overnight and broke through the 10th. In December, it closed at 83.5 and rose 29 points. China's new year collection and storage started, and foreign countries hope that the storage can support the international cotton price. In addition, the USDA report is about to be announced and the market is optimistic.

Federal Reserve Williams: The Fed has not yet decided to withdraw from QE in September. The San Francisco Fed** believes that current monetary and regulatory policies may accelerate the formation of an asset bubble. The impact of monetary policy on the economy will be much greater than expected. Policy makers should consider the potential impact of policy making; he expects that the Fed will likely be in 2015. The rate hike began in the second half of the year.

Merkel's reappointment or change: whether the new government can maintain the stability of the political situation becomes the focus. On September 23, the German election will announce the results. According to the current public opinion survey, the center-right league will lose most of the seats in the lower house, which is a huge challenge to the ruling party CDU. Even if Merkel can be re-elected, she will face an abnormal SPD (Social Party) power. Strong parliament.

Li Keqiang reiterated the reform plan. Li Keqiang reiterated that the Chinese leadership is determined to advance a series of reforms and said that it will continue to push forward reforms such as prices, fiscal and taxation, and financial reforms to help the economy transition to achieve long-term sustainable development. Li Keqiang said that 7.5% of the economic growth target this year is the lower limit of the economic reasonable operating range, and gives a more accurate unemployment rate data, this figure is higher than the official data, but lower than some private institutions given the expected . In an article published on the Central Government website on Monday, Li Keqiang stated that it is impossible for China to follow the old pattern of high consumption and high investment. He said that China will continue to implement reforms such as administrative management, fiscal and taxation, finance, and prices.

For the first time, the Chinese official announced the survey of unemployment data: 5% in the first half of the year On Monday, the Chinese government disclosed for the first time the data concerning the investigation of the unemployment rate. In the first half of this year, China surveyed the unemployment rate by 5%, which is higher than the 4.1% registered unemployment rate announced by the Ministry of Personnel and Social Security in the first and second quarters. However, it has not slipped out of the “lower limit” and the scope is controllable.

August CPI growth slowed down and inflation remained moderate. In August, the CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, which was lower than the 2.7% increase in July. It shows that inflation in August is still controllable. Although the PPI has been declining year-on-year since the beginning of 2012, the PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month in August, indicating a slight rebound in demand. After two consecutive quarters of slower economic growth, in recent months, inflation-related concerns have retreated to second place compared with the task of promoting economic growth back on track. Although economists have been worried that the economic growth rate this year may not reach the target level set by the government of 7.5%, but from the recent data, this goal seems to be achievable.

The news that the large transferable deposit certificates are expected to be launched this month. Recently, Wang Yongli, deputy governor of the Bank of China, stated in public that Bank of China has submitted the first batch of applications for large negotiable certificates of deposit; CCB also disclosed that it has submitted to the People's Bank a proposal for the establishment of a regular deposit certificate for large transferable banks in accordance with relevant requirements. According to sources, the five major state-owned banks have reported to the central bank the program of large deposits of transferable banks' regular deposit certificates. The landmark market for deposit interest rates is expected to be implemented this month at the earliest.

The economy continued to pick up and the troika data picked up. The statistics bureau announced on the 10th that in August the industrial added value of the above-scale industries increased by 10.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. Data show that the growth rate of exports, investment and consumption rebounded slightly during the month. In August, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased nominally 13.4% year-on-year (up 11.6% after deducting price factors). In August, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 1.61% over the previous month.

In August, 71.13 billion yuan was added. According to data released by the Central Bank of China on Tuesday, China's financial institutions increased 771 billion yuan in August, up from 699,000 yuan in July. In August, the size of social security was 1.57 trillion yuan, which was higher than the 804.8 billion yuan in July. At the end of August, China’s broad money supply M2 increased by 14.7% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 14.5% increase at the end of July.

As of September 9, US cotton boll 24%. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) statistics, as of September 9, US cotton new flower boll 24%, the same period last year and the recent five years, the average was 45% and 40%. 79% of the new flowers had normal growth status (excellent 9%, good 36%, generally 34%), and the abnormal ratio was 21% (13% difference, very poor 8%).

On September 9th, it began to store. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a "Notice on Initiating the 2013 Interim Cotton Storage and Storage" to the China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation on the 9th. The "Notice" pointed out that since the beginning of the 2013 cotton year, new cotton has been listed one after another, and the market cotton price has been low for five consecutive working days. The country’s announced cotton temporary storage and storage price is 20,400 yuan/ton. According to the provisions of the storage plan, it was decided to start the temporary storage and storage of cotton in 2013 starting from September 9. The scope of temporary cotton storage in 2013 is: color grade white cotton grade 4 and above, light spot pollution grade 2 and above; length grade 27 mm and above; micronaire grade A, grade B, and grade C grade 2; fracture ratio Intensity difference and above; low and uniform lengths; mid-range and above. The cotton price difference rate is implemented according to the “Adjustment Notice on Adjusting the Cotton Quality Spread Sheet of the China Cotton Association” published by the China Cotton Association on August 30th.

Xinjiang enterprises prudently acquired. The policy is clear, and the first batch of public inspection cotton data waiting for processing in Xinjiang by the ginning enterprises in Xinjiang has been issued so that the cotton enterprises can grasp the grade and ginning quality of seed cotton. The purchase price of Aksu 40 cottonseeds was RMB 9.1-9.2/kg. Bachu and Shaya several processing plants stated that according to the current price of cottonseed, the purchase price of 40 garments is 9 yuan/kg, even if it can be paid 100%. Storage and ginning factories also have to make small losses. Therefore, since early September, the majority of ginning factories in Aksu and Kashgar have waited and watched.

Most of the market fell as the palm oil led the decline. On Tuesday (September 10), most of the major contracts of various types of futures prices closed lower, palm oil led the decline, reported 5,494 yuan / ton, or 2.73%; soybean meal, vegetable soup, rubber, Shanghai silver, soybean oil and vegetable oil followed Both fell more than 1%. The rising varieties include early rice, ale, methanol and soybeans. Methanol led the rise, reported 2868 yuan / ton, up 1.09%.

Zheng cotton shock strong. On September 10, due to the good economic data, stocks in the stock market rose, and Zheng Cotton followed the external market. The 405 gains were relatively large, and the spread of 401-405 continued to narrow, to around RMB 900/t.

1309 to close at 21000, up 25 points, 1401 to close in 19685, fell 25 points; 1405 contract closed at 18780, down 10 points. A total of 27,848 hands were handed over the day, an increase of 1966 hands, 144,000 hand positions, an increase of 6892 hands.

As of September 9, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts 275 (11,000 tons), unchanged, warehouse receipts effectively forecast 54, unchanged.

Yesterday, the deposit was initiated and the rules were announced. The content has been modified slightly from last year, which is generally in line with market expectations. As a whole, the policy for storage and storage has been adjusted, with the intention of tightening. However, the specifics of the operation have yet to be confirmed. There have been no transactions in the past two days. The next step is to pay attention to the specific implementation of the policy and the dumping policy.

As the policy is still tightening tendencies, the current 401 pressure, 1-5 spread narrowed to 900 or so, today's rebound is weak, the operation over the air to continue to hold, 405 in the 18800 line to try a small amount of intervention in empty orders.