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Gross domestic product GDP
Generally, the higher the GDP, the better the economic development, the higher interest rates, the stronger exchange rate, and the weaker gold prices. Investors should look at the results of the quarter's GDP compared with the previous quarter and the same period last year, the growth rate, or higher than expected, can be considered positive.
2. Industrial production index
The index is rising, which means that the economy is improving, interest rates may be raised, and the dollar should be biased toward bullishness and negative for gold; vice versa.
3. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
The Purchasing Managers' Index is expressed as a percentage, often with 50% as the cut-off point for economic strength: when the index is above 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. Lido dollar, bad gold. When the index is below 50%, especially close to 40%, there is a worry of economic depression. It is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Negative dollar, Lido gold.
4. Durable goods orders
If the data grows, it means that the manufacturing situation has improved, which is good for the US dollar and bearish for gold. On the other hand, if it is lowered, it means that the manufacturing industry is shrinking, it is bad for the dollar, and it is bullish for gold.
5. Employment report
Since the publication time is at the beginning of the month, it is generally used as the keynote of the economic indicator of the month. Among them, the non-agricultural employment population is an important data for estimating industrial production and personal income. The unemployment rate is lower or the non-agricultural employment population is increasing, indicating that the economy is getting better, interest rates may rise, and it is good for the US dollar. It is bad for gold; on the contrary, it is not good for the US dollar, and it is bullish for gold.
6. Producer Price Index (PPI)
In general, the rise in the producer price index is mostly biased towards the US dollar, which is bullish for gold, and the negative is the bearish dollar and the bullish gold.
7. Retail sales index
The increase in retail sales represents an increase in personal consumption expenditures, and the economic situation has improved. If the expected interest rate rises, it will benefit the US dollar and bearish gold. On the contrary, if the retail sales decline, it will mean that the economy is slowing down or not, and the interest rate may be lowered. The dollar is biased towards bearishness and bullish gold.
8. Consumer Price Index
One of the most frequently mentioned price indices when discussing inflation. The consumer price index is rising and there is inflationary pressure. At this time, the central bank may control it by raising interest rates, which is bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold. On the contrary, cooked and lowered, bad dollars, and more gold. However, since most of the products related to life are final products, their prices only rise and fall, so the consumer price index has not fully reflected the reality of price changes.
9. New housing starts and construction permit building indicators
Because changes in housing construction will point directly to a recession or recovery. Generally speaking, the increase in new housing starts and construction permits is theoretically a positive factor for the US dollar, which will push the US dollar to strengthen and bearish gold. The decline in new housing starts and construction permits is lower than expected, which will put pressure on the US dollar and bullish gold.
10. Number of weekly jobless claims in the United States
Divided into two categories, initial application and continuous application. In addition to the weekly figures, the moving average of the four weeks is also published to reduce the volatility of the numbers. The change in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is one of the most eye-catching economic indicators on the market.
The United States is a completely consumer society. Consumer sentiment is the biggest driver of the economy. If the number of people applying for unemployment benefits increases due to unemployment every week, it will seriously curb consumer confidence. The relative US dollar is bearish and bullish. The lower the data, the improvement of the labor market, the optimistic outlook for economic growth, the dollar, and the negative gold.
11. US ECRI leading indicators
The leading indicator is a comprehensive indicator of the overall economic movement. It can explain the economic development and business cycle changes in the coming months earlier, and enable investors to predict the future direction of interest rates and predict future economic development. One of the most important economic indicators shows the economic outlook of the United States. If the US leading index of ECRI last week is higher than the previous value, it will benefit the US dollar and bearish gold; otherwise it will be detrimental to the US dollar.
12. US core retail sales this month
The retail sales index is a measure of the amount of consumer spending in the retail market, and core retail sales are based on retail data excluding cars, food and energy. The increase in retail sales represents an increase in personal consumption expenditures, and the economic situation improves. If the expected interest rate rises, it will be beneficial to the US dollar. If the retail sales decline, it will mean that the economy will slow down or be poor, interest rates may be lowered, and the US dollar will be biased. .
13. US Monthly Trade Account
The trade account reflects the state of merchandise trade between countries and is an important indicator for judging the operation of the macro economy. If the total amount of imports is greater than that of exports, then there will be a “trade deficitâ€; if exports are greater than imports, they will be called “trade surplusesâ€; if exports are equal to imports, they will be called “trade balancesâ€.
If a country often has a trade deficit, national income will flow out of the country, making the country's economic performance weaker. If the government wants to improve this situation, it must depreciate the country's currency, because the value of the currency declines, that is, the price of export commodities is reduced in disguise, and the competitiveness of export products is improved. The state of international trade is a very important factor affecting foreign exchange rates. Therefore, when the foreign trade deficit expands, it will be negative for the dollar, causing the dollar to fall, and bullish gold; on the contrary, when there is a foreign trade surplus, it will benefit the dollar and bearish gold.
14. US net capital inflows
It refers to the net amount of foreign investors who purchase US Treasury bonds, stocks and other securities after subtracting the amount of US residents’ investment in foreign securities. It is seen as a rough indicator of the state of capital flows.
Net capital inflows are in a surplus (positive number) state, which is better than expected, indicating that US net foreign exchange inflows are positive for the US dollar; on the contrary, it is in a deficit (negative number) state, indicating a net outflow of US foreign exchange and a negative dollar.
15. US equipment usage rate (also known as capacity utilization)
It is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment, representing the degree of capacity utilization. When the equipment usage rate exceeds 95%, the utilization rate of the equipment is close to the full point, and the inflation pressure will increase with the capacity being unable to cope. In the case that the market expects the interest rate to rise, it is bullish for the US dollar. On the other hand, if the utilization rate of capacity is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that the equipment is idle and the economy is declining. If the market expects the interest rate to fall, it is bad for the US dollar.
16. US Red Book commercial retail sales last week (annual rate, monthly rate)
It can measure the current economic strength, increase the retail sales, represent the increase of personal consumption expenditure, and improve the economic situation. If the expected interest rate rises, it will be beneficial to the US dollar; if the retail sales decline, it will mean that the economy is slow or poor, and the interest rate may be Downgrade, biased towards the dollar.
17. US API crude oil stocks last week
US stocks of API (American Petroleum Institute) crude oil inventories will affect international crude oil prices last week. In theory, if stocks decrease, crude oil prices will rise, and bullish gold will increase. When stocks increase, crude oil prices will fall and bearish gold.
18. New home sales
It refers to the number of houses that have signed a sale contract. Since homebuyers usually subscribe for houses through mortgages and mortgage loans, they are sensitive to current mortgage interest rates. The real estate market situation reflects the level of consumer spending. If the consumer spending is strong, it indicates that the country's economy is running well. Therefore, in general, the increase in new home sales is theoretically a positive factor for the US dollar, which will promote the dollar's strength. Negative gold; sales volume fell or lower than expected, will put pressure on the dollar, bullish gold.
19. Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the US economy and has an important impact on the US economy. To this end, analysts track consumer confidence indices to find clues about future consumer spending. The consumer confidence index has risen steadily, indicating that consumers are optimistic about future income expectations, and there are signs of expansion in consumer spending, which will help the economy to go well, bullish dollars, and vice versa. The Consumer Confidence Index is released twice a month, once at the beginning of the month and once at the end of the month.
20. Current account
The current account is the main item on the income and expenditure statement of a country. It records the situation of the outflow and inflow of funds from a country and a foreign country including factors such as the import and export of goods, services, investment income, other goods and services, and one-sided transfer. If the balance is positive (surplus), it means that the country's net foreign wealth or net foreign investment increases, and more domestic currencies are good. If it is a negative number (deficit), it means that the country's net foreign wealth or investment is small. A country’s current account deficit widens and the country’s currency will go down.
21. US EIA (American Energy Association) natural gas changes
From another aspect, it reflects the energy efficiency of the United States, which in turn reflects the economic development of the United States and has an impact on international crude oil prices. The data is larger than the previous value, reflecting the good energy efficiency of the United States, the bullish dollar, and the bearish gold.
In general, there are only two major factors affecting gold: on the one hand, the rise and fall of the US dollar index is inversely proportional to the price of gold; on the other hand, the price of oil is up and down, and it is the same as the price of gold!
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